Effects of non-compulsory and mandatory COVID-19 interventions on travel distance and time away from home, Norway, 2021.

BackgroundGiven the societal, economic and health costs of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), it is important to assess their effects. Human mobility serves as a surrogate measure for human contacts and compliance with NPI. In Nordic countries, NPI have mostly been advised and sometimes made mandatory. It is unclear if making NPI mandatory further reduced mobility.AimWe investigated the effect of non-compulsory and follow-up mandatory measures in major cities and rural regions on human mobility in Norway. We identified NPI categories that most affected mobility.MethodsWe used mobile phone mobility data from the largest Norwegian operator. We analysed non-compulsory and mandatory measures with before-after and synthetic difference-in-differences approaches. By regression, we investigated the impact of different NPI on mobility.ResultsNationally and in less populated regions, time travelled, but not distance, decreased after follow-up mandatory measures. In urban areas, however, distance decreased after follow-up mandates, and the reduction exceeded the decrease after initial non-compulsory measures. Stricter metre rules, gyms reopening, and restaurants and shops reopening were significantly associated with changes in mobility.ConclusionOverall, distance travelled from home decreased after non-compulsory measures, and in urban areas, distance further decreased after follow-up mandates. Time travelled reduced more after mandates than after non-compulsory measures for all regions and interventions. Stricter distancing and reopening of gyms, restaurants and shops were associated with changes in mobility.

A real-time regional model for COVID-19: Probabilistic situational awareness and forecasting.

The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging nations with devastating health and economic consequences. The spread of the disease has revealed major geographical heterogeneity because of regionally varying individual behaviour and mobility patterns, unequal meteorological conditions, diverse viral variants, and locally implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination roll-out. To support national and regional authorities in surveilling and controlling the pandemic in real-time as it unfolds, we here develop a new regional mathematical and statistical model. The model, which has been in use in Norway during the first two years of the pandemic, is informed by real-time mobility estimates from mobile phone data and laboratory-confirmed case and hospitalisation incidence. To estimate regional and time-varying transmissibility, case detection probabilities, and missed imported cases, we developed a novel sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation method allowing inference in useful time, despite the high parametric dimension. We test our approach on Norway and find that three-week-ahead predictions are precise and well-calibrated, enabling policy-relevant situational awareness at a local scale. By comparing the reproduction numbers before and after lockdowns, we identify spatially heterogeneous patterns in their effect on the transmissibility, with a stronger effect in the most populated regions compared to the national reduction estimated to be 85% (95% CI 78%-89%). Our approach is the first regional changepoint stochastic metapopulation model capable of real time spatially refined surveillance and forecasting during emergencies.

Discovery of host-directed modulators of virus infection by probing the SARS-CoV-2-host protein-protein interaction network.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the need to better understand virus-host interactions. We developed a network-based method that expands the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)-host protein interaction network and identifies host targets that modulate viral infection. To disrupt the SARS-CoV-2 interactome, we systematically probed for potent compounds that selectively target the identified host proteins with high expression in cells relevant to COVID-19. We experimentally tested seven chemical inhibitors of the identified host proteins for modulation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in human cells that express ACE2 and TMPRSS2. Inhibition of the epigenetic regulators bromodomain-containing protein 4 (BRD4) and histone deacetylase 2 (HDAC2), along with ubiquitin-specific peptidase (USP10), enhanced SARS-CoV-2 infection. Such proviral effect was observed upon treatment with compounds JQ1, vorinostat, romidepsin and spautin-1, when measured by cytopathic effect and validated by viral RNA assays, suggesting that the host proteins HDAC2, BRD4 and USP10 have antiviral functions. We observed marked differences in antiviral effects across cell lines, which may have consequences for identification of selective modulators of viral infection or potential antiviral therapeutics. While network-based approaches enable systematic identification of host targets and selective compounds that may modulate the SARS-CoV-2 interactome, further developments are warranted to increase their accuracy and cell-context specificity.

Increased household transmission and immune escape of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron compared to Delta variants.

Understanding the epidemic growth of the novel SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is critical for public health. We compared the ten-day secondary attack rate (SAR) of the Omicron and Delta variants in households using Norwegian contact tracing data, December 2021 - January 2022. Omicron SAR was higher than Delta, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.41 (95% CI 1.27-1.56). We observed increased susceptibility to Omicron infection in household contacts compared to Delta, independent of contacts' vaccination status. Among three-dose vaccinated contacts, the mean SAR was lower for both variants. We found increased Omicron transmissibility from primary cases to contacts in all vaccination groups, except 1-dose vaccinated, compared to Delta. Omicron SAR of three-dose vaccinated primary cases was high, 46% vs 11 % for Delta. In conclusion, three-dose vaccinated primary cases with Omicron infection can efficiently spread in households, while three-dose vaccinated contacts have a lower risk of being infected by Delta and Omicron.

Increased transmissibility of the alpha SARS-CoV-2 variant: evidence from contact tracing data in Oslo, January to February 2021.

BACKGROUND: Information about the contagiousness of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, including the alpha lineage, and how they spread in various locations is essential. Country-specific estimates are needed because local interventions influence transmissibility. METHODS: We analysed contact tracing data from Oslo municipality, reported from January through February 2021, when the alpha lineage became predominant in Norway and estimated the relative transmissibility of the alpha lineage with the use of Poisson regression. RESULTS: Within households, we found an increase in the secondary attack rate by 60% (95% CI 20-114%) among cases infected with the alpha lineage compared to other variants; including all close contacts, the relative increase in the secondary attack rate was 24% (95% CI -6%-43%). There was a significantly higher risk of infecting household members in index cases aged 40-59 years who were infected with the alpha lineage; we found no association between transmission and household size. Overall, including all close contacts, we found that the reproduction number among cases with the alpha lineage was increased by 24% (95% CI 0%-52%), corresponding to an absolute increase of 0.19, compared to the group of index cases infected with other variants. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that households are the primary locations for rapid transmission of the new lineage alpha.